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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 5 20 2019



good Dale I rep Steen Oakland and associates with your agriculture update for this Monday the 20th of May 2019 and we're about 3:40 p.m. central Daylight Time well the event of the day in agriculture was the crop reports and how the progress is going on everything that's being planted and as you know why she just turned on your news at night you see how the weather is going so that's for a moment just go there and then we'll come back to the prices corn planted progress was 49 percent complete compared to last week's 30 percent and a year ago 78 percent so we're far behind were still 39 percent behind but I'll get to that in a minute soy bean planted 19 percent compared the last week's nine and a year ago 53 cotton planted of 44 versus last week's 26 and a year ago 50 and spring wheat 70 percent compared to 45 percent last week in 76 I don't see the cotton in the wheat being problematic in fact the soybeans even though it's a such a low number you have a time frame to catch up with all that the corn markets the question and I say that because 49 percent is very close to 50 and that's basically what the market was looking for was 50 percent where it was caught up with Iowa now we had a discussion in the office and it's been a long going argument since GMO type of grains came about and the question is in the old rule of thumb you had certain dates when you got your seed in if things didn't happen and you couldn't get it in they weren't germinating well then you started yield loss yet when you get these new GMO strains that we're all basically that's what we sell that's what we're consuming that changes a bit because it just puts more onus if you will on summer months that's not to say that the market hasn't come up and in all fairness we thought that anything there for dollars was going to see a lot of farmer hedging I can tell you at our firm we saw big-time activity last night as the market was up here in these ranges right through the day when traders were and I'm talking the commercials they were actually we think selling a lot of I'm not gonna tell you two months and all and they were buying calls in case the market decided to run but they were putting that in and if you think about its insurance you couldn't only lose X amount on the call that you're buying it depends obviously on the strike you're putting in and by selling the futures nobody says you got to stay to the end anyways and the deltas will change on all that meaning the speed that the option price moves versus the futures so we're up at pretty strong areas here where the farmers probably getting somewhat enticed there's also going to be a certain amount of acreage that if it keeps raining like this the farmers just going to say I'm going into the prevent program I'm not gonna plant they'll put weed control on the grain and the heck with it that's gonna happen in some areas you just got so much water when you take a look at the weekly area chart of soybeans you got down to 797 you've come back now to 831 and 3/4 so very quietly we've had a 35 cent rally I would imagine anything getting up to that 18 day average is very enticing I have my doubts if it's gonna get there but you just don't know whether markets can do anything I mean anything you've got to keep that in the back of your mind what we have in the market temporarily is a pattern with today's action of higher lows we've already had the higher high so that's bullish what would turn this bearish is just getting under Friday's low of 8 20 and a half that could give you lower highs lower and low as I'm assuming the markets not going to jump sharply higher off that 19% figure I say that because if you look at where the battle grown ground has shown up it's right here reminds me of this action back here the 18 day average of closes is often an area that the market goes to to try to figure out what to do next notice how the market hasn't closed over this number so it's keeping itself away from by of turning up the bias is down the swingline is up when we look at Bollinger Bands this was the collapse and prices you can see how it just ran that band then it went back to the 18 day average where neutrality Xin but you got a fight going on mentum is still pointing up momentum often leads price the bias is down because you're at the 18 day average of closes and under it and if you take out a twenty and a half the question is the staff threw out a new cell signal as long as you don't take out eight 48 and a quarter so that 18 day average is turning out to be the all-important number if we take a look at meal it's not so different you have with today higher and lows and a higher high difference here is you finish today at two ninety seven thirty which is just over that eighteen day average of closes so the bias is up momentum is up trend is up what would turn this down is getting under 293 seventy so now the Bulls have to defend this position the question is was this report bullish enough to do so in the soybean oil that's very different you've gotten lower and low higher high pattern notice how many days you've been trading at that eighteen day average often that is what markets do they get to a number often it's that eighteen day average and they'll sit there trying to figure out what's their next move going to be now the corn markets been on a tear it has gone from 343 to today's high of 391 and a half almost a 50 cent rally is that enticing enough for the farmers to come in and the trade to say this is where the hedges are coming in don't know corn is the all-out weather market at this point you have with today's close over the upper Bollinger Band you were over it on Friday you were over it on Thursday you were not over it if you take a look on the day before so we have three days in a row over the upper Bollinger Band I count each successive day over it is one of the 5% of the time that the market trades outside of the Bollinger Bands and stays there so I give the market in this range a 2% chance of staying over that number tomorrow and if it gets into Wednesday one percent chance because the markets sliced right through the hundred day average I've got to ask myself if it breaks will the market find support at that hundred day average you are overbought not in a trend you're in what we call one of those zip lines right up in the wheat market you've gotten up high enough now where the markets in a serious resistance area of the hundred day average of closes you're now that today you were over the upper Bollinger Band you were over that band also on Friday you were not over that band on Thursday or were you now you were that's an up day right there so that's three days and this day you finished actually under it so you have three days in a row over it into the hundred day average and overbought I'd be very surprised if this market doesn't stall right here that's not to say the trend isn't up it is until you break through under the current pattern for 46 and a quarter in the sugar market you've been in a downtrend you still have what we call an embedded reading embedded occurs when the two numbers that make up the slow stochastic oscillator the momentum oscillator SSTO and they're both sitting under 20 sideways for several days or more and what that often means is unraveling to see professional selling the market until that red line gets over 20 and at that point the brakes on selling off and come off the market now starts fighting a battle if it stays off in other words over 20 then I look for price in the 18 day average to come together you're not there yet so I'm still seeing a potential here for selling in this market the coffee market keeps failing at the 18 day average of closes you see that you had a good chance to do it the other day this was last Thursday when you had the outside day up you had the swingline up if you took that out odds put in favor you're gonna make a run for the lower Bollinger Band you didn't quite get there that doesn't mean you can't resistance is still the 18 day average target could be the lower Bollinger Band in the cocoa market the market has now turned its trend back up higher and lows higher highs now you have an outside day up which means you took out Friday's low and high if the market continues here I look for some rather formidable resistance at that upper Bollinger Band because your overbought if you head up to it we'll see if that occurs if you take out this today's low then the hundred day average could become the next support zone but the market has turned itself to the upside in the cotton market you have a double whammy here of an interesting chart action you lost the embedded reading do you see how this number is over 20 now if I come before that you can see you had successive days under that so that means when you lose it you have to keep it lost the next day that often is the case when you closing the top part of the range of the day that it's lost we'll see if that occurs if it stays like that then this market is setting up the possibility of pricing the 18 day average and that's quite a run their problem that I saw is in the crop reports I don't see any damage to this market so it looks pretty normal to me in the cattle market you have a pattern of a lower and low a higher high now if we come over here this is what the embedded slow stochastic looks like remember we just came off the cotton talking about that if you lose it often price in the 18 day average come together in this particular case it happened both on the same day that's not normally the cases how it works now you're stalling out I don't see a trend I see a market that's gotten back to that 18 day average and fighting to decide what to do let me come back to that by the way if you were to close over 109 77 and a half get up and get through that number you're liable to set up a pattern of higher and lows higher highs and get a very interesting move possibly back to the upside I'd look to see where ever that Bollinger Band falls down for the resistance in the feeder cattle you've got the pattern of lower highs lower and lows but the virgin's galore look at how Momentum's pointing up yet price action down if this market takes out Friday's high 140 605 and closes over the 18 day average which is going to be lower than it is today that could set up a potential buy signal in the market who's controlling the market right now the Bears but with that divergence at no in the hog market we have the pattern of higher lows higher highs bullish momentum a bullish bias a bullish and boy are there new stories for whatever reason I don't know who pays who but all of a sudden all weekend long we kept hearing about Pig Ebola it's not Ebola it's African swine fever and one of the things that's happening is in Europe they're starting to get cures for this but they're not out yet they're not available at this point they're working on it the problem is when you get this and there was another case to discover today in China when you get it you can't just leave the herd and say I'll take out the few sick animals the rate of contagion is almost near 90 95 percent in most cases therefore generally the whole herd is cold so they're losing lots of pork the problem for America is that that pork that's being sold to make up the difference in China is not from America it's from South America's where a lot of it's coming it's coming from Europe as well so they are picking up the business obviously you less with this trade war isn't picking that business up but is that other pork disappears around the world our pork does get sold everywhere so that's one way to look at it the question many traders are asking is this the low one of the things I had told traders a long time ago is if you're going to take a shot on that era consign fever work with your broker maybe you put on vertical call spreads don't take an out now risk but you can work that out with your broker we write about all that in fact this vertical call spread the reason I'm bringing it up is our firm has been discussing those in its newsletter and that doesn't mean you should be doing it or not doing it you know trade ideas come and go and there is often as well there it goes one just now but as you can see we right on all these different subjects and how you get them is by email they come in you figure out which ones of our information you want we categorize all the financials together but we break out the grain separate we break out the meets the top trades Treasuries give you a good way to work through it how do you get this information well number one is free if you haven't tried it before our customers get it for free how do you get this give us a call go to our website this is a great time if you're a grain trader in the meat markets because you're getting all this action happening and you can always click up here when you get to our website you'll see a carousel of free offers click on it know where you go I my rap scene you have a good day I'll see you all tomorrow

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